Exclusive:Fresh Survey Shows Who Will Win The Election By 17%.
a survey was conducted by two indigenous survey firms Forward
magazine and Zevland Ventures Limited. A few of its highlights were
presented by Chike Uchime of Forward Magazine and Daniel Dickson-Okezie
of Zevland Ventures Limited
During the survey, researchers were using 24,000 sample sizes across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory, in order to decide who would win the upcoming presidential election.
The outcome of the survey was based on three major factors:
1) The respondents’ views on the achievements of the president from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election.
2) The correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
3) A detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
The release of the survey stated:
“When asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65% of the respondents opted for PDP, while 31% favoured the APC, 1% went for other parties, while the remaining 2% went for none of the parties.”
The respondents were also asked to rate Jonathan’s performance in ten critical areas such as: security, agriculture, power, education, transportation, aviation, press freedom, fight against corruption, human rights and job creation, somen empowerment, they allegedly claimed to be impressed on the average.
“When the respondents were asked if they would vote for Jonathan based on their responses to the previous questions, 62.2% answered in the affirmative, and 29.7% in the negative, while 4.1% were undecided.
“On the question whether Buhari is considered more capable in addressing the critical issues in the areas listed, 30.7% answered in the affirmative, while 65% answered in the negative. Another 4.3% of the respondents were undecided. From the foregoing, it was becoming visible the likely direction of their votes.”
The survey report indicated the dynamics that have taken place since the 2011 election and the likely effect on the outcome of this year’s presidential election.
According to the report, “Issues addressed here include: (i)The effect of intra-party conflicts; (ii) The effect of mass decampment/cross-carpeting; (iii) The effect of endorsements by ethno-religious groups, socio-cultural groups, paramount rulers and others; and (iv) inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since 2011
“Each of these issues will either have a positive or negative impact on the candidates. For example, the mass defection of some PDP governors and party stalwarts to the APC may affect the PDP negatively in some states. However, this likely set-back may be cancelled out by some high-profile defection to PDP such as that of Governor Mimiko of Ondo State and those of former Governors Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa, Ibrahim Shekarau among others.
“Also, the effect of the conflict between the Fulani cattle rearers and indigenous farmers mainly in the North Central states and Taraba State in North-east may likely cost Buhari, who is a Fulani, some important votes in the areas concerned. Equally, the increase in bloody clashes between the Hausa Fulani and the people of Southern Kaduna might likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by traditional rulers and ethnic nationality groups among others in the South-east, South-south and South-west has enhanced President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined which may work in favour of the president is the recent and aggressive deployment of the social media network which now ensures a wider reach and delivery of its programmes to the people. Hitherto, the APC was in control and more effective in the use of the social media.”
Recently, a UK-based research and political risk consultancy firm, has also predicted the outcome of the March 28 presidential election. According to a new survey, carried out by the research company, Goodluck Jonathan will win the 2015 presidential election with a margin of 13%.
Before that, world largest political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, had released its forecast for the presidential poll, predicting victory for Muhammadu Buhari. It is worth mentioning that Goodluck Jonathan personally reacted to the prediction by saying: “You may wish General Buhari win as you deem, but God’s shall be carried out on that day.”
During the survey, researchers were using 24,000 sample sizes across 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory, in order to decide who would win the upcoming presidential election.
The outcome of the survey was based on three major factors:
1) The respondents’ views on the achievements of the president from 2011 to date and to see how this can affect his chances in the coming election.
2) The correlation between the outcome of the 2011 presidential election and the likely outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
3) A detailed study of the various dynamics that have taken place since 2011 and the likely impact on the outcome of the 2015 presidential election.
The release of the survey stated:
“When asked which of the two main political parties they preferred, 65% of the respondents opted for PDP, while 31% favoured the APC, 1% went for other parties, while the remaining 2% went for none of the parties.”
The respondents were also asked to rate Jonathan’s performance in ten critical areas such as: security, agriculture, power, education, transportation, aviation, press freedom, fight against corruption, human rights and job creation, somen empowerment, they allegedly claimed to be impressed on the average.
“When the respondents were asked if they would vote for Jonathan based on their responses to the previous questions, 62.2% answered in the affirmative, and 29.7% in the negative, while 4.1% were undecided.
“On the question whether Buhari is considered more capable in addressing the critical issues in the areas listed, 30.7% answered in the affirmative, while 65% answered in the negative. Another 4.3% of the respondents were undecided. From the foregoing, it was becoming visible the likely direction of their votes.”
The survey report indicated the dynamics that have taken place since the 2011 election and the likely effect on the outcome of this year’s presidential election.
According to the report, “Issues addressed here include: (i)The effect of intra-party conflicts; (ii) The effect of mass decampment/cross-carpeting; (iii) The effect of endorsements by ethno-religious groups, socio-cultural groups, paramount rulers and others; and (iv) inter-religious/ethnic conflicts since 2011
“Each of these issues will either have a positive or negative impact on the candidates. For example, the mass defection of some PDP governors and party stalwarts to the APC may affect the PDP negatively in some states. However, this likely set-back may be cancelled out by some high-profile defection to PDP such as that of Governor Mimiko of Ondo State and those of former Governors Peter Obi, Attahiru Bafarawa, Ibrahim Shekarau among others.
“Also, the effect of the conflict between the Fulani cattle rearers and indigenous farmers mainly in the North Central states and Taraba State in North-east may likely cost Buhari, who is a Fulani, some important votes in the areas concerned. Equally, the increase in bloody clashes between the Hausa Fulani and the people of Southern Kaduna might likely tilt a win in favour of Jonathan.
“The volume of endorsements by traditional rulers and ethnic nationality groups among others in the South-east, South-south and South-west has enhanced President Jonathan’s chances.
“Another critical factor examined which may work in favour of the president is the recent and aggressive deployment of the social media network which now ensures a wider reach and delivery of its programmes to the people. Hitherto, the APC was in control and more effective in the use of the social media.”
Recently, a UK-based research and political risk consultancy firm, has also predicted the outcome of the March 28 presidential election. According to a new survey, carried out by the research company, Goodluck Jonathan will win the 2015 presidential election with a margin of 13%.
Before that, world largest political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, had released its forecast for the presidential poll, predicting victory for Muhammadu Buhari. It is worth mentioning that Goodluck Jonathan personally reacted to the prediction by saying: “You may wish General Buhari win as you deem, but God’s shall be carried out on that day.”
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